Current:Home > MyThe job market is cooling but still surprisingly strong. Is that a good thing? -TradeStation
The job market is cooling but still surprisingly strong. Is that a good thing?
View
Date:2025-04-12 17:37:40
The country's job market is finally showing signs of cooling – but it may still be a tad too strong.
That may sound strange. In a traditional economy, a strong labor market would usually be a good thing, but it's not so positive in an economy that continues to struggle with high inflation.
U.S. employers added 209,000 jobs in June, according to data out on Friday. That's below the pace of recent months but it's still a very solid number.
And the overall labor market remains tight, with the unemployment falling to 3.6%, low by historic standards. Meanwhile, wages also continue to rise, increasing at an annual rate of 4.4%.
Here are some key takeaways from the Labor Department's June jobs report:
The jobs engine is shifting down
It may be a slowdown, but any month when the U.S. economy adds more than 200,000 jobs is a solid gain.
In fact, the economy may need the labor market to slow down further to help bring down inflation.
There are some signs that's happening. June's employment increase was the smallest since December 2020.
Job gains for April and May were also revised down by a total of 110,000 jobs.
In the first six months of this year, monthly job growth averaged 278,000 jobs — a significant downshift from the previous six months when employers were adding an average of 354,000 jobs every month.
But all in all, this is still a strong jobs market.
Why the labor market is still so solid
The resilience of the job market has surprised many economists given that the Federal Reserve had been raising interest rates aggressively to slow down the economy and bring down inflation.
But people continue to spend, especially on activities like eating out or traveling on vacation.
In fact, people are spending about twice as much money on services as they do on goods, and lately that gap has widened.
Spending on services rose 0.4% in May while spending on goods fell by 0.5%.
Employers pay attention to those spending patterns when deciding whether to hire more workers — and it was reflected in June's jobs data.
Service industries such as health care and hospitality continued to add jobs last month, the data showed, but goods-oriented industries such as retail and warehousing have been cutting workers.
The unemployment rate remains at historic lows
There was another sign of just how tight the labor market remains: The unemployment rate dipped to 3.6% in June from 3.7% the month before.
The unemployment rate has been under 4% for 17 months in a row — the longest such stretch since the 1970s.
The jobless rate has remained low even as more workers have entered the workforce.
The share of working-age (25-54 year old) men in the job market rose to 89.2% in June — matching the highest level since February 2020. Meanwhile, the share of working-age women in the job market hit a record high of 77.8%.
Not everyone is reaping the benefits of the tight job market, however.
The unemployment rate for African Americans, which fell to a record low of 4.7% in April, has risen in each of the last two months, reaching 6% in June.
Here's more good news for workers: Wages are climbing
With solid job growth and low unemployment, employers are having to compete for workers with higher wages.
Average wages in June were 4.4% higher than a year ago. That matches the annual pay hikes in April and May.
Wages are not rising as fast as they did last year, but the good news is, neither are prices.
Annual wage gains in May outpaced price hikes, so workers' real buying power increased. (Inflation figures for June will be released next week.)
But a solid jobs market makes things harder for the Fed
Rising wages are good for workers, but the Federal Reserve is worried that if paychecks increase too rapidly, it could put upward pressure on inflation — especially in service industries where wages are one of employers' biggest expenses.
The Fed held interest rates steady at its last meeting in June, but signaled that might be just a pause and suggested that rates would likely need to continue rising to bring down inflation.
Now, with another month of solid job growth and rising wages, markets expect the Fed to raise interest rates by another quarter percentage point when policymakers meet later this month.
And more rate hikes could be in store should the economy continue to show signs of resilience.
veryGood! (2)
Related
- Sarah J. Maas books explained: How to read 'ACOTAR,' 'Throne of Glass' in order.
- Jennifer Aniston launches children’s book series with best ‘friend’ Clydeo the dog
- Score 50% Off Aritzia, 2 ColourPop Brow Products for $10, 75% Off Gap, $500 Off Avocado Mattress & More
- Federal agreement paves way for closer scrutiny of burgeoning AI industry
- Costco membership growth 'robust,' even amid fee increase: What to know about earnings release
- Takeaways from AP examination of flooding’s effect along Mississippi River
- Four Cornell College instructors stabbed while in China, suspect reportedly detained
- US gas prices are falling. Experts point to mild demand at the pump ahead of summer travel
- Opinion: Gianni Infantino, FIFA sell souls and 2034 World Cup for Saudi Arabia's billions
- The 10 Best Sexy Perfumes That’ll Immediately Score You a Second Date
Ranking
- Justice Department, Louisville reach deal after probe prompted by Breonna Taylor killing
- Ryan Reynolds makes surprise appearance on 'The View' with his mom — in the audience
- Mexico councilwoman who backed Claudia Sheinbaum's party shot dead outside her home
- Lala Kent's Latest Digs at Ariana Madix Will Not Have Vanderpump Rules Fans Pumped
- 'As foretold in the prophecy': Elon Musk and internet react as Tesla stock hits $420 all
- Buying a home? Expect to pay $18,000 a year in additional costs
- Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp journeys to South Korea in sixth overseas trip
- Joe Jonas Enjoys Beach Day in Greece With Actress Laila Abdallah After Stormi Bree Breakup
Recommendation
Spooky or not? Some Choa Chu Kang residents say community garden resembles cemetery
Condemned Missouri inmate is ‘accepting his fate,’ his spiritual adviser says
Federal watchdog investigates UAW president Shawn Fain, accuses union of being uncooperative
Federal appeals court weighs challenge to Iowa ban on books with sexual content from schools
Are Instagram, Facebook and WhatsApp down? Meta says most issues resolved after outages
Young Thug's attorney Brian Steel arrested for alleged contempt of court: Reports
'Not all about scoring': Jayson Tatum impacts NBA Finals with assists, rebounds, defense
Crew finds submerged wreckage of missing jet that mysteriously disappeared more than 50 years ago