FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Center|Will the Emmys be the ‘Shogun’ show? What to expect from Sunday’s show

The FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank CenterEmmys have become the “Shogun” show well before Sunday’s ceremony even begins.

The FX series about political machinations among local lords, Portuguese traders and a wandering British sailor is already the winningest series for a single season in Emmy history after taking 14 trophies at the precursor Creative Arts ceremony on Sunday.

The main Emmys show could not only extend its lead — it could bring historic wins for its lead actors.

Here’s a look at the 76th Primetime Emmy Awards, which will be held Sunday night at the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles, hosted by Dan and Eugene Levy and airing on ABC.

‘Shogun’ steamrolls into Sunday

“Shogun” could win six more trophies, including best drama series, best actor in a drama for Hiroyuki Sanada and best actress in a drama for Anna Sawai.

Though if it fails to win in the biggest categories, “Shogun” may end up feeling like a sports team that has a record-setting regular season then tanks in the playoffs.

Sanada, 63, is a revered veteran Japanese actor whose face may be familiar to most American viewers for films including “The Last Samurai” and “John Wick: Chapter 4” even if his name is not. He’s favored by most experts to win best actor over more widely known performers including Gary Oldman, Donald Glover and Idris Elba.

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Sawai, 32, even less known in the U.S., is in the same situation, favored over famous names like Jennifer Aniston — who had been considered a frontrunner for “The Morning Show” before the “Shogun” wave took shape — and her castmate Reese Witherspoon.

Either Sanada or Sawai would be the first Japanese actor to win an Emmy.

When “Shogun” led all Emmy nominees with 25 at the announcements in July, many — including The Associated Press — suggested it was at least in part because of the absence of last year’s HBO big three: “Succession,” “The White Lotus” and “The Last of Us.”

But its dominance at the Creative Arts ceremony put it in its own class. It wasn’t just the number, it was the percentage. It won 14 of the 16 awards it was up for, getting snubbed only in two music categories. It won for its costumes, its hairdressing, its cinematography, its costumes, its casting and many more categories on its way to breaking the record of 13 Emmys set by the 2008 limited series “John Adams.”

When Néstor Carbonell won best guest actor in a drama and thanked the crew, he gleefully declared, “You’re all here!” because the crowd was so full of people who worked on the show.

Possibly getting a whiff of the golden possibilities, the makers of “Shogun” shifted from the limited series to the more prestigious drama category in May at the expense of competitors like “The Crown,” which might have been getting a coronation for its final season. The Netflix series is considered the only significant competitor for “Shogun.” Elizabeth Debicki is very likely to win for playing Princess Diana, and Imelda Staunton could take the best actress trophy from Sawai for playing Queen Elizabeth.

But it would truly be a stunner if “The Crown” won its second best drama series Emmy this year.

‘The Bear’ plays second banana

“The Bear,” which led all comedies with 23 nominations, could well have been the darling of these Emmys after tying “Succession” with six wins at the previous ceremony, held in January because of Hollywood’s strikes.

Its placement in the comedy category — mocked by some for a show with more drama than many dramas — will be a major perk this time amid the “Shogun” dominance.

The FX show’s second season — which this year’s nominations are for — was even more acclaimed than its first, and even though its recently released third season was received more coolly, it could easily see repeat acting wins for Jeremy Allen White, Ebon Moss-Bachrach and Ayo Edebiri, who will face somewhat stiffer competition after a shift from supporting actress to lead.

Stars in the periphery

While “Shogun” and “The Bear” may lack household names, there are truly major stars who are potential winners at these Emmys, several of them Oscar winners.

Two-time Academy Award winner Jodie Foster is a good bet to win her first Emmy as best actress in a limited or anthology series or TV movie for playing a hot-tempered cold-weather cop in “True Detective: Night Country.”

Meryl Streep could end up with more Emmys than Oscars if she wins her fourth for best supporting actress in a comedy for “Only Murders in the Building.”

Reigning best supporting actor Oscar winner Robert Downey Jr. could also become a first-time Emmy winner. He’s up for best supporting actor in the limited series category for playing five different roles in “The Sympathizer.”

Academy Award winners Gary Oldman and Brie Larson are also among the nominees, and one Oscar winner, Jamie Lee Curtis, already won an Emmy for her guest role on “The Bear.”

Old Emmy constants will also be featured. Aniston is a 10-time Emmy nominee who only won once during her time on “Friends.”

Jon Hamm is up for acting Emmys for both “The Morning Show” and “Fargo.” He’s an 18-time nominee who also only won once, for “Mad Men.”

Father and son hosts

An ABC awards show not hosted by Jimmy Kimmel? It’s about to happen. And the father-son duo of Eugene and Dan Levy make plenty of sense as replacements.

The four-time Oscar host Kimmel emceed the last time ABC aired the show in 2020, and those “Pandemmies” were among the only successful awards shows of the pandemic era. The novelty of an empty theater, show’s casts gathered together in remote locations, and a hazmat-suited representative comically handing out the trophies somehow worked.

The stars of that show were the cast members of the Levys’ show “Schitt’s Creek,” which swept the comedy categories including wins for best actor for Eugene Levy and best supporting actor for Dan.

The telecast still rotates between the four broadcast networks, even as they consistently fail to get nominations, much less wins, in the biggest categories. ABC’s “Abbott Elementary” and NBC’s “Saturday Night Live” have been the lone broadcast bright spots in recent years.